The objective of WP4 is to attribute (with uncertainty) annual and decadal variability of carbon and CO2, N2O and CH4 (GHG) budgets in managed European ecosystems to anthropogenic and natural driving processes.
For attribution and GHG budget calculations at regional and European level we will employ three types of models and thus combine their respective strengths. Advanced multivariate statistical data analysis (fuzzy logic, regression trees, artificial neural networks) serve to derive response functions of carbon (C) and GHG fluxes to changing drivers from the observations (WP2, WP4) and may detect unknowns and surprises in ecosystem response to complex factor combinations.
State-of-the-art sectoral models for forests, croplands and grasslands with detailed representation of land management disentangle the impact of the usually complex interactions between past and present changes in drivers, and the interactions among the various types of anthropogenic drivers for CO2, CH4 and N2O (WP4). Generic ecosystem models, containing all ecosystem types and detailed ecosystem physiology, but only a coarse representation of land management have their strength in quantifying the European C balance and effects of climate variability and land use change (WP5).
All models will be subject to systematic uncertainty analysis with common procedures provided by WP7.
Workpackage Lead: Prof. Pete Smith (UNIABDN)
Project finished in September 2013 [more]
Imer D, Merbold L, Eugster W, Buchmann N (2013) [more]
Luyssaert, S., G. Abril, et al. (2012) [more]
Merbold L, Steinlin C, Hagedorn F (2013) [more]
Mohn J, Steinlin C, Merbold L, Emmenegger L, Hagedorn F (2013) [more]
Nabuurs G-J, Lindner M, Verkerk PJ, Gunia K, Deda P, Michalak R, Grassi G (2013) [more]
Scott RL, Serrano-Ortiz P, Domingo F, Hamerlynck EP, Kowalski AS (2012) [more]
Wolf S, Eugster W, Ammann C, Haeni M, Zielis S, Hiller R, Stieger J, Imer D, Merbold L, Buchmann N (2013) [more]
Fundingsource: EU (FP7)
EC-contribution: 6.6 Mio.€
Consortium: 41 partners, 15 countries
Coordinator: A. Freibauer (TI)